A single person who had been cleared to leave evidently caught it on the way out of the quarantine hotel in Adelaide and wasn't detected until they became ill six days later after flying to Melbourne. There literally was an incident along the lines of one door opening while another door was closing, when it should have been closed.
We still have many arrivals from overseas all of whom have to stay in quarantine for at least two weeks and test negative three times. It's not perfect but it's pretty damn good. The longer we can put off having any dodgy vaccinations, the better
Pass, Let's play. Last southern hemisphere winter I'll imagine there was a normal endemic respiratory virus doing the winter rounds in Oz. SARS-CoV-2 comes in and can't get a toehold. I think the figure is that 65% of cases in Aus were imported and I guess the other 35% were largely their very close contacts. It faded away. Test, track and trace might have had some minor influence. You've had summer, it takes minimal effort to control respiratory viruses in summer, so TTT was excellent. Now it's winter. Experience in the UK suggest that Sars-CoV-2 is quite capable of being the dominant virus when immunity is low and other viruses are on vacation. For yourselves that is now and you probably don't have an endemic virus to keep SARS-CoV-2 excluded. The incidence of accidental transmission, as has happened, will be much harder to avoid and mitigate by TTT as immunity falls in the general population. Once it's out, winter will allow it to transmit far better.
Happily, given a TTT system best described as sh!te, the UK is now down to a rolling 7 day mean of about 5 or 6 deaths per day in the aftermath of a +ve test, in the whole of the UK.
I just look at the countries of Eastern Europe, how well they did through the summer of 2020 and how useless even the German TTT system proved once immunity dropped in the autumn. As it does.
Theoretically Oz might get lucky, it would be lovely if that happens. It seems a bit unlikely from the outside.
And I'd guess NZ is at least as seasonal as the UK.
I think I probably read Hope Simpson decades ago and have downloaded a pdf copy recently, probably via Ivor, but not (re?) read it yet. I like seasonality. I like how there is usually one dominant virus per season, occasionally with a swap over at Christmas. I even read Fred Hoyle's ideas about viruses from space (didn't buy into that one). Individual/population susceptibility seems utterly crucial to me.
I don't think it has to be another corona virus. I never saved the paper (might have been tweeted by Gabor Erdosi). Any virus which produces an infection generates a local airway response (possibly interferon mediated) which excludes other viruses becoming established. Even quite trivial viruses can exclude quite pathogenic ones. It would explain the areas where what appeared to be natural immunity (mistaken for effective lockdowns) suppressed COVID until SARS-CoV-2 got its chance later in the year. It might be why it took off so late in the winter season here in the UK too. Although the timing might have more to do with Matt Handcock (Health minister in the UK) actively infecting care homes by clearing infectious elderly out from hospitals. To where they returned a week later, but now accompanied by the rest of their care home residents and many of the staff.
I think we are in an extraordinarily vulnerable position but the fact that no cases of Covid at all have been reported at any time except those which can be closely related to specific incoming visitors when the quarantine system breaks down tells me that this virus is usually not circulating here.
Nothing that anyone does outside of that threat prevents normal sniffles and coughs from going around. They come and go. I notice them around me all the time. Melbourne is further south and much more crowded than where I am (S.A.) so I expect people there to have greater vulnerability to all sorts of seasonal bugs. Tasmania however is significantly further South than tgat so you'd expect greater susceptibility there but afaik no cases on the loose, zero community transmission.
It's hard to convey just how paranoid/xenophobic Australians can be. We live in some kind of quarantine culture so lockdown can be a good excuse to keep to yourself. We always have had strong bio-barrier mentality here against people, animals, apples and potatoes even between adjacent states!
There's an interesting experiment going on in Melbourne atm where as the virus might be ramping up, people are rushing to get their first vaccine dose. If the idea that to this both increases the risk of exposure plus lowers immunity for a while hold water then we might see some interesting statistics (if they ever get published). A bump in the case numbers anyway. Already one of the vaccination centres was closed because it was identified as a hot-spot by contact tracers.
Pass, exactly the same is happening in Bolton in the UK. There is a small pocket of residual virus which is being "managed" by emergency mass vaccination. I listen to Pravda Radio (aka The BBC) on my way to work on Thursdays and Fridays and the narrative to the public sounds very convincing while being completely wrong. But that's what humans do!
BTW absolutely basic virology 101. Virus always mutate. Variants which are more contagious and less lethal are selected for. It's called attenuation. It happens all the time. It's normal. It goes back to Pasteur and rabies. That was 1885. All down hill since then, arriving in the cesspit we live in today.
If you look carefully at the news today, it's becoming increasingly difficult to differentiate reporting from marketing. The cancer stage of capitalism isn't just about the rise of financialization. It's also about the pathological loss of honesty & integrity.
Right on cue: "One of the new positive cases reported on Sunday was a healthcare provider in an aged care home in the western suburb of Maidstone.
---- ,the chief executive, said the worker had received her first dose of a Covid vaccine, was wearing a mask and had not displayed symptoms when she last worked at the centre on Thursday."
Pass the cream is right. Australia has a long history of bio security, From banning imports, banning fruit across state borders, worlds longest dog fence, rabbit fences, I even remember getting sprayed with insecticide when you entered the country by plane. Our Covid response is the typical Australian way. But do not fall into thinking winter here is anything like the northern hemisphere. Our most southern point is on the same latitude as Spain and here in Queensland I can make vitamin d most of the day as the UV index is high, and it’s 23 degrees, that’s winter here. (Not in Melbourne, but who wants to live there).
Marseilles 43.3'N. Hobart TAS 42.9'S but the mainland ends around 39'S
Hobart is a long damn way from anywhere.
Covid won't be as hard to get rid of as cane toads, soursobs or feral cats are but a lot of people in Melbourne are going to get sick now it's arrived there again.
I think that the whole country has turned into a hermit kingdom as far as the CV plague is concerned but I don't have a clue how long we can sustain this. I fantasize that we might be exerting a weird type of selection pressure on it, daring it to become wildly contagious and at the same time very mild so that it passes around like a common cold and puts an end to this whole situation.
It probably won't and unless there is an effective vaccine along sometime soon with minimal adverse effects were going to have to face up to it sooner or later.
Yes and the government has learned nothing. Fourth lockdown!
ReplyDeleteUm, "Indian" variant? I thought they had cut themselves off from the world? How did an Indian variant get there?
ReplyDeleteA single person who had been cleared to leave evidently caught it on the way out of the quarantine hotel in Adelaide and wasn't detected until they became ill six days later after flying to Melbourne. There literally was an incident along the lines of one door opening while another door was closing, when it should have been closed.
ReplyDeleteWe still have many arrivals from overseas all of whom have to stay in quarantine for at least two weeks and test negative three times. It's not perfect but it's pretty damn good. The longer we can put off having any dodgy vaccinations, the better
Pass, Let's play. Last southern hemisphere winter I'll imagine there was a normal endemic respiratory virus doing the winter rounds in Oz. SARS-CoV-2 comes in and can't get a toehold. I think the figure is that 65% of cases in Aus were imported and I guess the other 35% were largely their very close contacts. It faded away. Test, track and trace might have had some minor influence. You've had summer, it takes minimal effort to control respiratory viruses in summer, so TTT was excellent. Now it's winter. Experience in the UK suggest that Sars-CoV-2 is quite capable of being the dominant virus when immunity is low and other viruses are on vacation. For yourselves that is now and you probably don't have an endemic virus to keep SARS-CoV-2 excluded. The incidence of accidental transmission, as has happened, will be much harder to avoid and mitigate by TTT as immunity falls in the general population. Once it's out, winter will allow it to transmit far better.
ReplyDeleteHappily, given a TTT system best described as sh!te, the UK is now down to a rolling 7 day mean of about 5 or 6 deaths per day in the aftermath of a +ve test, in the whole of the UK.
I just look at the countries of Eastern Europe, how well they did through the summer of 2020 and how useless even the German TTT system proved once immunity dropped in the autumn. As it does.
Theoretically Oz might get lucky, it would be lovely if that happens. It seems a bit unlikely from the outside.
And I'd guess NZ is at least as seasonal as the UK.
Peter
Hope-Simpson
ReplyDeleteI think I probably read Hope Simpson decades ago and have downloaded a pdf copy recently, probably via Ivor, but not (re?) read it yet. I like seasonality. I like how there is usually one dominant virus per season, occasionally with a swap over at Christmas. I even read Fred Hoyle's ideas about viruses from space (didn't buy into that one). Individual/population susceptibility seems utterly crucial to me.
ReplyDeletePeter
Awesome Peter. Ivor definitely exposed me to HS.
DeleteHmmmm. There are a lot of (big) bats in Oz. Some cross-immunity?
ReplyDeleteI don't think it has to be another corona virus. I never saved the paper (might have been tweeted by Gabor Erdosi). Any virus which produces an infection generates a local airway response (possibly interferon mediated) which excludes other viruses becoming established. Even quite trivial viruses can exclude quite pathogenic ones. It would explain the areas where what appeared to be natural immunity (mistaken for effective lockdowns) suppressed COVID until SARS-CoV-2 got its chance later in the year. It might be why it took off so late in the winter season here in the UK too. Although the timing might have more to do with Matt Handcock (Health minister in the UK) actively infecting care homes by clearing infectious elderly out from hospitals. To where they returned a week later, but now accompanied by the rest of their care home residents and many of the staff.
ReplyDeletePeter
Gabor is a beast!
DeleteI think we are in an extraordinarily vulnerable position but the fact that no cases of Covid at all have been reported at any time except those which can be closely related to specific incoming visitors when the quarantine system breaks down tells me that this virus is usually not circulating here.
ReplyDeleteNothing that anyone does outside of that threat prevents normal sniffles and coughs from going around. They come and go. I notice them around me all the time. Melbourne is further south and much more crowded than where I am (S.A.) so I expect people there to have greater vulnerability to all sorts of seasonal bugs. Tasmania however is significantly further South than tgat so you'd expect greater susceptibility there but afaik no cases on the loose, zero community transmission.
It's hard to convey just how paranoid/xenophobic Australians can be. We live in some kind of quarantine culture so lockdown can be a good excuse to keep to yourself. We always have had strong bio-barrier mentality here against people, animals, apples and potatoes even between adjacent states!
Btw I think the latest varieties are extremely contagious. Whenever there is community transmission, as now, we know about it.
ReplyDeleteThere's an interesting experiment going on in Melbourne atm where as the virus might be ramping up, people are rushing to get their first vaccine dose. If the idea that to this both increases the risk of exposure plus lowers immunity for a while hold water then we might see some interesting statistics (if they ever get published). A bump in the case numbers anyway. Already one of the vaccination centres was closed because it was identified as a hot-spot by contact tracers.
ReplyDeletePass, exactly the same is happening in Bolton in the UK. There is a small pocket of residual virus which is being "managed" by emergency mass vaccination. I listen to Pravda Radio (aka The BBC) on my way to work on Thursdays and Fridays and the narrative to the public sounds very convincing while being completely wrong. But that's what humans do!
ReplyDeleteBTW absolutely basic virology 101. Virus always mutate. Variants which are more contagious and less lethal are selected for. It's called attenuation. It happens all the time. It's normal. It goes back to Pasteur and rabies. That was 1885. All down hill since then, arriving in the cesspit we live in today.
Peter
Uncanny
ReplyDeletehttps://www.zerohedge.com/covid-19/virologists-claim-fingerprints-manipulation-prove-covid-19-man-made-no-credible-natural
If you look carefully at the news today, it's becoming increasingly difficult to differentiate reporting from marketing. The cancer stage of capitalism isn't just about the rise of financialization. It's also about the pathological loss of honesty & integrity.
ReplyDeleteWinning is losing.
Right on cue: "One of the new positive cases reported on Sunday was a healthcare provider in an aged care home in the western suburb of Maidstone.
ReplyDelete---- ,the chief executive, said the worker had received her first dose of a Covid vaccine, was wearing a mask and had not displayed symptoms when she last worked at the centre on Thursday."
(Guardian)
Pass the cream is right. Australia has a long history of bio security, From banning imports, banning fruit across state borders, worlds longest dog fence, rabbit fences, I even remember getting sprayed with insecticide when you entered the country by plane. Our Covid response is the typical Australian way. But do not fall into thinking winter here is anything like the northern hemisphere. Our most southern point is on the same latitude as Spain and here in Queensland I can make vitamin d most of the day as the UV index is high, and it’s 23 degrees, that’s winter here. (Not in Melbourne, but who wants to live there).
ReplyDeleteMarseilles 43.3'N. Hobart TAS 42.9'S but the mainland ends around 39'S
ReplyDeleteHobart is a long damn way from anywhere.
Covid won't be as hard to get rid of as cane toads, soursobs or feral cats are but a lot of people in Melbourne are going to get sick now it's arrived there again.
But:
https://mobile.twitter.com/leannetonkes/status/1399215988952948737
See what you did?
ReplyDeletehttps://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/israel-sees-probable-link-between-pfizer-vaccine-small-number-myocarditis-cases-2021-06-01/
Pass, I see the outbreak is settling. I appreciate your insight!
ReplyDeletePeter
I think that the whole country has turned into a hermit kingdom as far as the CV plague is concerned but I don't have a clue how long we can sustain this. I fantasize that we might be exerting a weird type of selection pressure on it, daring it to become wildly contagious and at the same time very mild so that it passes around like a common cold and puts an end to this whole situation.
ReplyDeleteIt probably won't and unless there is an effective vaccine along sometime soon with minimal adverse effects were going to have to face up to it sooner or later.