Hyperlipid: Ioannidis

Friday, February 18, 2022

Ioannidis

I have great respect John Ioannidis

I'm also coming to accept that prison or sectioning for the primary malfeasants is not going to be the best or even a practical solution. Lessons still have to be learned and systems questioned.

Peter

69 comments:

cavenewt said...: The options aren't mutually exclusive. As with the economic meltdown in 2008, letting the perpetrators slide just encourages people to do it again later. Throw some people in jail and all of a sudden everybody has skin in the game.

Absolutely the systems need to be re-examined. Discouraging "public-private partnerships" would be a good start.; 18 Feb 2022, 17:28:00
Tucker Goodrich said...: This is delusional:

"Teaching free citizens about the risk of multifarious biases and how to prevent, detect, and avoid them is a job for educational institutions like schools and universities, not for tech companies, billionaires, federal bureaucrats, or online mobs."

The schools are the mobs.

I also respect Ioannidis, but there is much muddled thinking in this piece, although I am happy to see him write it.; 19 Feb 2022, 02:34:00
cavenewt said...: On the subject of perpetrators: Personally I've put the lab-leak theory lower on the List of immediate concerns, but if it's true that the biggest influencers of the public health response were more concerned with a CYA effort than figuring out how to help the public...!

https://brownstone.org/articles/the-lab-leak-the-plots-and-schemes-of-jeremy-farrar-anthony-fauci-and-francis-collins/

"During the most critical weeks leading up to the obvious spread of the virus all over the Northeast of the U.S., leading to incredible carnage in nursing homes due to egregious policies that failed to protect the vulnerable and even deliberately infected them, public health officials in the US and UK were consumed not with a proper health response but with fear of dealing with the probability that this virus was man-made in China."; 20 Feb 2022, 17:11:00
Eric said...: Sorry for putting this here. The chitchat is moderated now, and this might be too important to let it slide.

This reached me via Chris Masterjohn's newsletter (which I had unsubscribed):
https://chrismasterjohnphd.substack.com/p/explaining-the-hospitalization-paradox?utm_source=url

Not sure what to make of this, i.e. whether Chris is now wearing a tinfoil hat and making up new diseases or wether he is onto something.

The theory is plausible, but the article is very weak on data.

Take this, for example:

Chris: "As originally pointed out by Peter Doshi, in the 2-month data from the Pfizer trial, there were 3,580 cases of COVID-like illness, 95.3% of which tested negative for COVID."

Peter Doshi: "But these numbers were dwarfed by a category of disease called “suspected covid-19”—those with symptomatic covid-19 that were not PCR confirmed. According to FDA’s report on Pfizer’s vaccine, there were “3410 total cases of suspected, but unconfirmed covid-19 in the overall study population, 1594 occurred in the vaccine group vs. 1816 in the placebo group.”

I never knew Covid-like illness was an issue until I read Chris' article this morning. Even google does not yet seem to know about it.

Again, from Chris: "For the first time in late January, 2022, the CDC released COVID-like illness numbers for a large set of data in US hospitals. In this report it is called “COVID-19-like illness” and is defined as a collection of codes within electronic health records representing respiratory failure, pneumonia, dyspnea (trouble breathing), cough, fever, vomiting, or diarrhea."

That is an extremely broad defintion and could be due to all kinds of infections. Word from hospitals in Germany is that there was an increase in RSA in December but that there is certainly no wave of above illnesses requiring hospitalization or even GP visits. On the contrary, we are still waiting for the flu season to kick in.; 21 Feb 2022, 17:39:00
Tucker Goodrich said...: My wife worked in a hospital in the NYC metro area, and was switched to COVID-19 triage of the sickest patients (no protective equipment) when the thing kicked off in March 2020. Several of her colleagues came down with PCR-confirmed disease, and she got sick at the same time. Two PCR nasal swab tests were negative. The hospital said they were seeing quite a lot of this, and not only diagnosed her as having COVID-19, but (importantly!) paid her to stay home for a month as her illness became pneumonia.

There was a case report early on of a person who had two different coronavirus infections, one in the nose and a different strain in the lungs.

So it's certainly conceivable, and not new for me at least, that you can have it and not have PCR confirmation. The hospital ascribed this to her practice of sinus lavage, but who knows.

There were also a number of people that had PCR-confirmed illness and then later had a negative antibody test, as did I when I had it done, despite probably having had COVID-19 early on and then being exposed to my wife for a month in a small apartment while she was sick.

The tests aren't perfect...; 21 Feb 2022, 18:16:00
cavenewt said...: Sorry if this isn't the right place, but I'm replying to Eric's comment about the Masterjohn article. I have many of the same doubts as Eric, and am still trying to wrap my head around the convoluted argument. In a comment I expressed concern about relying on CDC data rather than more reliable sources like Israel, Scotland or UKHSA. Chris's reply was not exact exactly confidence-inspiring: "I think the CDC data must be generally true or how else would they let it look so terrible?..."; 21 Feb 2022, 19:04:00
LA_Bob said...: Eric and cavenewt,

I recall Malcolm Kendrick, in a comment to one of his own posts, noting that differential diagnosis of COVID and flu based on symptoms was often not clear-cut.

More recently with Omicron, Dr John Campbell reported that at the peak of the surge the ONS said half of all colds in the UK were really COVID.

I wonder if the CDC makes a distinction between "IFI" (influenza-like illness) and COVID-like illness and what the distinction is (besides an imperfect PCR test).; 21 Feb 2022, 23:39:00
Sisifo said...: Yes, schools and universities are very much a big part of the problem.; 22 Feb 2022, 02:55:00
Eric said...: Tucker, thanks for chiming in. Did your wife have a lung x-ray that showed the characteristic broken glass structures? Was there still a considerable flu wave in NYC when this started? l remember there being a shortage of PCR test supplies in the US in the beginning. Were those test that they did manage to administer of the same quality as they were later in the learning curve?

Newt, yes, convoluted argument is what nails it best. The other thing that has bothered me is that Chris assumes that neutralized virus DNA cannot be detected by PCR while this has been shown to be a problem, i.e. recovered and symptom free people testing positive.

Bob, the funny thing is that PCR tests are now being accused of being too sensitive and to insensitive at the same time.; 22 Feb 2022, 05:03:00
Pierre said...: The pandemic is a sideshow. Control is the main goal. This video explains it much better than I can. Highpoints are listed below...must see video. Find on Rumble or Spotify.
Joe Rogan talks with Maajid Nawaz. Nawaz is a former Islamist turned counter-extremism activist, author of multiple books, and public speaker. He was the founding chairman of Quilliam, a counter-extremism think tank that sought to challenge the narratives of Islamist extremists and, until January 2022, was the host of an LBC radio show on Saturdays and Sundays.
This must-watch interview covers a lot of ground, including:
• How language is being weaponized for political gains and agendas.
• How Nawaz stopped working with nation state powers because they were always looking for ways, especially in emergency situations, to increase their power. "Emergencies," notes Nawaz, "are always used by the state for power grabs."
• How there should have been -- and needs to be -- an informed debate before allowing governments to force people to get vaccinated without their consent for the sake of the common good. The state, argues Nawaz, cannot legitimately say that vaccines are safe and effective when there have been no long-term studies to prove they are. The state can also NOT be counted on to wield invasive power without abusing it.
• Governments and pharmaceutical companies need to be rigorously questioned before determining if what they are saying is true and accurate, especially if they have a history of lies and deception. Pharmaceutical companies, for example, have been fined billions of dollars for illegal activities that killed and injured thousands of people. The assumption that pharmaceutical companies (and nation states) are acting in our best interest "needs to be interrogated."
• How all-cause morality rates are showing a spike in deaths in Great Britain. A 25 percent spike in heart attacks is also being reported. Nawaz believes vaccines are causing these spikes.
• Nawaz says that it is important to ask questions when things don't make sense. But these days, notes Nawaz, people who start asking questions about the safety and effectiveness of vaccines loose their jobs, are stigmatized, and censored. "When people are trying to shut you down, the says more to me about what's going on than anything else."
• Nawaz discusses coverup, censorship, and conflict of interest issues that emerged around the COVID virus and the Wuhan Lab. He also discusses how coverup, censorship, and conflict of interest issues also plagued all other aspects of the COVID-19 pandemic, including masks, lockdowns, and mandates. "Eventually the truth came out, but it had to be fought for. That tells me that . . . the people who were involved in suffocating the truth and smearing dissidents . . . they weren't acting in our best interest."
• Nawaz discusses how the powers that be are planning to introduce "central banking digital currency (CBDC)." "Digital cash could be programmed to insure that it is only spent on essentials or goods which an employer or deems to be essential." There is, according to Nawaz, another word for all of this: "The Chinese Social Credit System."
• Technology, according to Nawaz, disrupts power structures. "What happened when they invented the printing press? What, today, is the Gutenberg Press? The internet. The decentralization of information and then . . . the decentralization of currency in the form of cryptocurrency is disrupting power."
• Nawaz discusses how The World Economic Forum, via The Great Reset and Young Global Leaders, is one of the main ring leaders in promoting global centralization.
• Finally, Nawaz discusses how China is aggressively encouraging, coercing, and manipulating other nations to follow their Social Credit System model.; 22 Feb 2022, 18:28:00
Tucker Goodrich said...: @Eric:

"Did your wife have a lung x-ray that showed the characteristic broken glass structures?" Yes.

"Was there still a considerable flu wave in NYC when this started?" No, COVID killed flu off pretty quickly.

She was tested very early on, but not sure about the specific test she got, as I'm not super-concerned about the PCR test being accurate or not.; 22 Feb 2022, 18:55:00
Eric said...: @Pierre: How all-cause morality rates are showing a spike in deaths in Great Britain.

My favorite typo so far this year! On a more serious note, thanks for the summary, seems to cover a lot of points worth discussing. Why does he think the increase in heart attacks is due to vaccines? Occam's razor should tell us that Covid causes all kinds of vascular problems. Simple test? Did heart attacks increase in 2020 or only in 2021?

Also, I don't necessarily think that governments want to grab power per se. Bureaucracies maybe, but certainly not all political parties. In the UK, Tory and Labour probably wouldn't mind some power grab. What do the Lib Dems stand for these days? Greens?

@Tucker: Thanks, broken glass should be telling. Did Covid kill of flu or the lockdowns?; 22 Feb 2022, 19:29:00
karl said...: @Tucker Goodrich
I've heard the same thing - people with obvious CoVid failing to test positive even with multiple tests. I think PCR tests - particularly they way they were used - are extremely misleading - both false positive and false negatives. I don't think they should be used with out first having symptoms - I would not call anyone without symptoms a case (Every one will get exposed) Now some of these people might have influenza - but I think most had CoVid.

I am puzzled why so many WANT to get tested? The tests cure nothing. If I'm sick with a fever I'm going to stay home - that would reduce spreading ANY type of infection. If you test positive, you don't 'know' that you have CoVid - if you test negative you don't 'know' that you don't have CoVid. The way the tests should be used - someone with CoVid symptoms - if they don't test positive it is a hint to look for other infections. It is like everyone assumes that all other medical problems ended.. insane.. I suppose if the tests were used early, one could have started early treatment, but they didn't.

I see a shift - the NYT article about the hidden data seems to be an attempt to get out ahead of a whistle blower??.. next few days could be interesting?

There are tons of data that they have withheld from the public - denying 'informed consent' - gaslighting is just wrong. They have been shooting from the hip - not only with effectiveness - but safety as well. My take is they created more doubt by withholding data - if I can’t see the data, I’m not going to trust them. These people have blood on their hands.

The reason they are hiding the data? The new Israeli study, the leaked DOD data, VAERS all show a similar pattern - New Israeli data linked here:

https://stevekirsch.substack.com/p/how-rare-are-vaccine-side-effects?r=o7iqo&utm_campaign=post&utm_medium=web&utm_source=url; 22 Feb 2022, 19:41:00
karl said...: Part of this may have to do with 'safety culture' - no one is supposed to be troubled by troubling information? It is a 'snowflake' problem - canceling free speech because it might upset someone has destroyed science - caused REALLY bad policy decisions..

If people won't grow up - they won't really live their lives either - really sad - but I'm actually quite angry at having to waste so much time on this - all we have is time - best to not waste it.. They stole 2 years of my life.; 22 Feb 2022, 19:48:00
cavenewt said...: karl—"I am puzzled why so many WANT to get tested? The tests cure nothing." In my case it would be purely from academic curiosity. I try to talk gently to people and give them a little brain itch about vaccine effectiveness revealed by data and how it differs from the official messaging. If I was to get sick I would get tested just to inform my conversations a little bit more. Believe me, I'm already a total skeptic about lab tests in general and Covid tests in particular.

As far as symptomatic versus asymptomatic positive test results. Here's an interesting article looking at the relationship between Covid and flu over the last couple of years. I have no idea if there's anything to this but it's interesting nonetheless. "The False God of Central Planning: The Mysterious Reappearance of the Flu, Natural vs Vaccine-Induced Immunity, the Inability of the Vaccines to Control the Virus, and Other Extraordinary Lessons About the End of the Pandemic" https://www.juliusruechel.com/2022/01/the-false-god-of-central-planning.html

We are indeed turning into a planet of snowflakes, indoctrinated into victimhood. If people were truly interested in being "safe", cars would be outlawed tomorrow. So much is theater these days.; 22 Feb 2022, 20:03:00
LA_Bob said...: "I'm also coming to accept that prison or sectioning for the primary malfeasants is not going to be the best or even a practical solution."

I have never thought there would be a "reconciliation" over the handling of this pandemic.

The Nuremburg judges rejected the infamous Nuremburg defense -- "just following orders". The corresponding defense today would be "trying to save lives". Very hard to condemn anyone who, sincerely or otherwise, was just doing their damnedest to save lives.

As far as systems being questioned, of course I share that goal. But especially as the pandemic fades from view, good luck forcing a course change in a fleet of battleships.; 23 Feb 2022, 16:23:00
cavenewt said...: Iceland is bowing to the inevitable. "Iceland to lift all COVID-19 restrictions on Friday [Feb. 25, 2022]"

'"Widespread societal resistance to COVID-19 is the main route out of the epidemic," the [Iceland Ministry of Health] said in a statement, citing infectious disease authorities. "To achieve this, as many people as possible need to be infected with the virus as the vaccines are not enough, even though they provide good protection against serious illness," it added.'

https://www.reuters.com/business/healthcare-pharmaceuticals/iceland-lift-all-covid-19-restrictions-friday-media-reports-2022-02-23/; 23 Feb 2022, 18:52:00
Eric said...: You folks are going to love our health minister after this:
https://www.zeit.de/politik/deutschland/2022-02/karl-lauterbach-corona-massnahmen-lockerung

- all current variants including Omicron are 2nd generation, i.e. directly decended from wild type
- the last two years have been the baby years, will be dealing with this at least for the next 10 years
- next variant may be worse and Omicron is not to be trifled with
- doesn't matter whether someone is hospitalized due to or with Covid, survival chances of MI with Covid are just worse
- Germany cannot afford to abandon all restrictions because unvaccinated over 60 are 10% (vs. 2% in UK or 4%) - I think this might not be true because RKI says number of vaccinated is a lower bound, in surveys, numbers are consistently 5% points higher, and I suspect elderly may be even more undercounted as there were mobile vaccination teams going to care homes, church gatherings and the like very early on which maybe did not properly file all vaccinations
- daily deaths now 200 - 300 and would increase if all restrictions removed and he's sad we have become used to that - I agree, Denmark, is spite of higher recorded vaccination, is reporting about 3.4x higher Covid deaths
- supports vaccine mandate for those over 18 because he feels we need to increase vaccination rate before next fall to avoid restrictions, suffering and deaths, is ok with massive fines and sanctions
- my favorite quote: The same applies to entry and work bans for employees in professions where vaccination will be mandatory from mid-March, such as nurses. If they were to pass the virus on to patients as unvaccinated, they would be acutely endangered. Moreover, their reservations about vaccination would cause them to question "the canon of Western medicine on the basis of self-overestimation." They would therefore have to ask themselves whether they were in the right profession as health workers.

Translated with www.DeepL.com/Translator (free version)

To me, he seems to be a seriously concerned doctor, not a crazed or power-hungry bureaucrat. However, as his last quote shows, he does not recognize his own hubris if he allows no doubt whether the chosen path of spike vaccines is the only or the best path.

As a bonus, here's some reporting from Ottawa:
https://slate.com/news-and-politics/2022/02/ottawa-freedom-convoy-truckers-protest.html; 24 Feb 2022, 07:03:00
karl said...: I think the desire for testing provides a false sense of control over the virus.

This is really good for anyone trying to learn from science journals - there is 'the science' and there is science.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rCTRndlILLo; 26 Feb 2022, 03:48:00
JasmineJohend said...: I am sorry to be off topic but does anyone know what happened to the blogger called Woo? She used to be a fairly regular commentator here, on her own blog and Twitter but she seems to have just..gone. I used to enjoy her blog (as well as Peter's of course). I miss the nutrition "disputes" of a few years back, even though there were arguments over LC/HC, Jimmy Moore, etc, looking back they were simpler times compared to now with the virus, health and govt authorities. I practically yearn for the return of those times.; 26 Feb 2022, 21:35:00
Tucker Goodrich said...: She made all of her accounts private.

I didn't go along forthe ride.; 27 Feb 2022, 02:45:00
Eric said...: Interesting take from a statistician. Didn't know that the profession has moved away from the very concept of significance:
https://www.nytimes.com/2022/03/01/opinion/under-5-vaccine.html

On a side note, Peter, my last comment in the chitchat has been stuck for days. Could you please approve it and open another powwow? Thanks; 2 Mar 2022, 08:55:00
Peter said...: Hi Eric, as far as I can tell everything is up to date. Hope it's not disappeared in to the ether...

Peter; 2 Mar 2022, 11:09:00
Eric said...: Thanks, maybe I'll take the time to repost if I can still find the links.

This was just published in the guardian, it's along the same lines as what Malcolm was saying, that some people just don't get infected. Interesting story also about the college student who resisted challenge tests only to be infected by a passing stranger. Maybe different variant?

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2022/mar/02/scientists-seek-to-solve-mystery-of-why-some-people-do-not-catch-covid

Nobody in my extended family have caught it so far or had symptoms like cough or amnosia, neither pre or post vaccination which according to some makes one a sitting duck for Omicron. Adults all had a chance to limit exposure which is not so much the case for the kids. Knock on wood.; 2 Mar 2022, 13:30:00
Eric said...: Peter, my mistake, I posted in the Pfisrael thread about half a week ago and it turned up now.; 2 Mar 2022, 13:34:00
Tucker Goodrich said...: @Eric: "Didn't know that the profession has moved away from the very concept of significance..."

Like 70 years ago. It's misused in medicine and medical "science" because it is conducive to fraud.; 2 Mar 2022, 15:44:00
cavenewt said...: "some people just don't get infected"

It's a common anecdote among low-carbers that they just don't get colds or flu anymore. I don't suppose any of these scientists have bothered looking at the general immune health of various groups, instead of fixating with laserbeam focus on Covid.; 2 Mar 2022, 16:23:00
cavenewt said...: Re Eric's mention od the pediatric NY study and https://www.nytimes.com/2022/03/01/opinion/under-5-vaccine.html

Robert Malone has an interesting post where he treats it as if he were a peer reviewer. Pretty interesting. https://rwmalonemd.substack.com/p/peer-review-example-effectiveness; 2 Mar 2022, 16:27:00
Eric said...: I haven't mentioned the pediatric NY study as I have yet to read the reporting about it.; 2 Mar 2022, 17:21:00
cavenewt said...: Oops, sorry, Eric. I thought at first glance that's what your New York Times link was for.; 2 Mar 2022, 19:24:00
Captain Sunset said...: Masks? It's the Daily Mail, but well worth a read: https://www.dailymail.co.uk/health/article-10565993/Cloth-masks-allow-90-particles-filter-giving-little-ability-prevent-Covid.html?fbclid=IwAR21FsiEncT6_FXksT44sD3HmxfCNNtJWy0qpGmHZFmCYEg0T7Sx1gRp02k; 3 Mar 2022, 08:28:00
Tucker Goodrich said...: "It's the Daily Mail..."

They've been one of the most reliable sources.; 3 Mar 2022, 21:53:00
Captain Sunset said...: Ha! Well, I did point out it was from Daily Mail!! The irony is that such copy is now starting to creep out into the MSM - which is the point I was actually trying to make. That must be a good thing, no? Anyway, today the DM is probably as reliable as any CDC copy or that of Prof. Neil Fuckitupalloveragainson.; 3 Mar 2022, 22:13:00
Eric said...: https://www.nytimes.com/2022/03/03/world/australia/new-zealand-covid-omicron.html

This is a special case as most of the population have probably never been to real virus but have nearly all received mRNA shots. Will missing natural exposure make a difference?

Re Daily Fail article: we've known that for a long time which is why cloth masks have not been allowed where masking was mandated in most o continental Europe since fall of 2020. The UK and US simply held out. I tend to agree with the statement that in that case masks were more of a symbol than anything.; 4 Mar 2022, 06:58:00
altavista said...: But...but...

https://www.mdpi.com/1467-3045/44/3/73/htm#B39-cimb-44-00073; 4 Mar 2022, 10:25:00
cavenewt said...: In the last couple of years, the only place those skeptical of the mainstream narrative could get a hearing was right-wing media. Now I find myself reading articles in the Epoch Times and looking askance at the New York Times (to which I was, until last week, a subscriber). I've been making a conscious effort to look at the message, not the messenger. Believing in a "trusted news source" has only led to the gaslighting of at least half of the (American, anyway) public.; 4 Mar 2022, 14:41:00
Peter said...: cave, I was always a little skeptical about MSM but the last two years have destroyed any faith pretty well completely. And now Ukraine. How, why? Where will it end? I am half Ukrainian. I still cannot bear the absolute polarisation in the UK media and I assume it's the same the whole world over. People will die for the gains of the leaders. No one in either population deserves what is happening, let alone what is going to happen.

alta, yes. we're pretty fcuked. I guess there will be random inserts in random places which will produce random bits of spike protein when random genes are expressed. Oh boy. On the plus side that might well lead to random low grade illness rather than acute fatality for all of the vaxxed. Maybe we should have run a long term safety trial or something like that, before attempting to vaccinate the whole world. Nah, no need...... Warp speed and all that.

Peter; 5 Mar 2022, 09:01:00
cavenewt said...: I hope this is good news for you Brits (is it OK to use that term?)

"‘End of Covid’ SAGE stands down as UK enters new phase of pandemic" https://www.express.co.uk/news/uk/1575969/Covid-news-SAGE-stand-down-end-pandemic-restrictions-ont

"Britain’s Covid experts ‘abandoned their objectivity and misled with alarming models’" http://bitly.ws/oX8V

The United Kingdom’s Scientific Advisory Group for Emergencies (Sage) was the emergency team that advised the British government about Covid and how to respond to it. The British have now pulled the plug on Sage.

“This is a remarkable turnabout of events given that just before Christmas, SAGE advisers were warning infections could hit two million per day and were pushing for further restrictions,” said Professor Carl Heneghan, director of the Centre for Evidence-Based Medicine at the University of Oxford.

The Telegraph UK reported that British lawmakers have become increasingly frustrated with “pessimistic predictions” from Sage, and are concerned the group does not fully account for lockdown damage to the economy, mental health and education.

“The Government will need to review whether SAGE is fit for purpose when it comes to pandemics, particularly given its lack of clinical input and its overreliance on modelling – which we now know is no more than ‘guesswork’ – and its tendency to fixate on a particular set of assumptions,” warned Professor Heneghan.

And good riddance. Dr. Tom Jefferson of Oxford told the Express, “I think this is really good news because [SAGE has] been an absolute disaster for our society. They should have gone a long time ago.”

The Telegraph article mentions "An inquiry into the pandemic response is due to begin this spring. However, research is increasingly suggesting that lockdown was not needed because the public naturally begins social distancing when they see cases rise, or friends and family becoming infected." An investigation? That sounds promising. But on duckducking, it appears that Boris Johnson started talking about an inquiry pretty early on, in 2020. https://duckduckgo.com/?q=UK+inquiry+into+the+pandemic+response&t=osx&ia=web; 5 Mar 2022, 16:55:00
LA_Bob said...: "Maybe we should have run a long term safety trial or something like that..."

Haha! That would require genuine curiosity, honest concern over public health, and the willingness to accept that one's hypothesis might fail despite the time, effort, and resources sunk into it.

To riff on cave's comment a bit, I've scratched my head over the MSM's transition from challenging government policy (say, during the Vietnam War years) to mouthing it. I suppose noticing these things is one of the few gifts of advancing years.

Even in the late 70's the press took the government to task over the swine flu vaccine fiasco, with that icon of investigative journalism 60 Minutes embarrassing a former CDC director who was stupid enough to grant an interview.

I guess we like to imagine that somehow, "this time is different".; 5 Mar 2022, 17:05:00
cavenewt said...: If nothing else, look over the first couple of pages, #67, and most especially the postscript at the very end.

This is a Canadian judge's decision involving a vaccination dispute. I read it not knowing what the ultimate decision was. Despite the length, I ended up reading every word because it's a fascinating example of critical thinking (and not much legalese). And applicable to completely unrelated topics. And uplifting!

https://www.sirillp.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/03/Ontario-Family-Court-decision.pdf; 5 Mar 2022, 18:23:00
Eric said...: Cave, you make it sound like you don't consider the Epoch Times right-wing but it is by many objective criteria. Just had a look at the German and French editions: endorsing AfD and RN far right parties, xenophobia, anti-abortion, anti-LGBT-rights, you name it. I take it the US edition was pretty neutral politically but it seems they jumped on the Trump/Bannon/QAnon bandwagon from 2016.

Peter, for nuanced reporting on Eastern Europe, I tend to turn to these two websites
https://www.n-ost.org/
https://en.zois-berlin.de/

We are lucky to have quality papers that also run nuanced background stories, some from their own reporters, some commissioned. In the UK, I think the guardian does a pretty good job if you ignore their health and nutrition reporting. I still keep my NYT subscription, even if I don't have to approve of everything they run. I find slate.com has some pretty good background stories. There is also the odd good find on Politico, the Atlantic, lawfare. So, to me, main stream media are not one monolithic block.

About the Swedish paper about reverse transcription, it is certainly not reassuring that the FDA and hosts of other institutions told us this couldn't happen without really looking. On the other hand, real Covid does the same thing, we don't yet know if those sequences get integrated into the genome, and those were cancer cell lines. I hope this preprint triggers the research it suggests is warranted.; 5 Mar 2022, 19:55:00
Peter said...: cave, MPs are not noted for their intelligence. But even *they* have finally realised that they have been had. Badly. Only took two years.

Bob and Eric. I like stuff to make sense. I have a firm belief in there being a number of true facts. I don't think I'm getting them. COVID set a massive precedent for the long term normalising of lying. In a field I understand it was beyond obvious. Now the BBC is reporting people who are suggesting Putin is irrational through long covid or through "long lockdown".

Nothing to do with geopolitics, NATO or the USA of course.

Peter; 5 Mar 2022, 21:07:00
Passthecream said...: Whether you're talking about whacky politics wrt the response to CV2, or wrt the corruption of medical and espec vaccine research or anything to do with the agri-industrial sector and-or the mass media propaganda machine, it's ultimately all about the $$$ and the petrochemicals. The western oligarchs and the eastern(?) oligarchs are fighting hard for the big slices of all of these pies. Everyone else is mincemeat.

One thing which is disappointing to me is that I thought that by the age of 42 my son would have learned the difference between his left and his right but the distinction is blurred now anyway and I remember when John Ralston Saul(sp?) suggested quite a while ago that this way of viewing reality is basically defunct. However when I forwarded a link to the boy of Prof Michael Hudson's view about the current situation he indignantly told me I should stop reading all this terrible propaganda on the internet --- I thought it was an entirely reasonable essay, nothing radical or violent, just the cold hard financial realities.; 6 Mar 2022, 10:06:00
cavenewt said...: Eric, I think you almost completely missed my point. "Cave, you make it sound like you don't consider the Epoch Times right-wing but it is by many objective criteria." Are you kidding? The Epoch Times is totally right wing. As a good liberal, even six months ago I would not have touched it with a barge pole. But now I find they're running some reasonable articles, at least in regards to Covid. Meanwhile I finally got fed up with the NYT and canceled my subscription; at least Slate, the only other publication to which I subscribe, isn't quite as bad. The Atlantic seems to have gone off the rails.

As you say, "main stream media are not one monolithic block." (Although I wonder if you've looked into TNI at all.) My point was, look at the content, not the messenger/publication. I'm consciously trying to take off my jersey and operate topless, as it were. As passthecream sayss, the distinction between left and right is getting blurry. I still think the left has more going for it than the right, at least in the US, but as time goes by even that is getting more doubtful.
————

Change of topic…"reverse transcription,...On the other hand, real Covid does the same thing..." If Covid does, so do other viruses. Why are we making Covid so special? Maybe because it was the subject of a tremendous propaganda campaign? Covid is now the Great Satan—and therefore a great money machine. Long Covid is an official Thing. Never mind that in the past people suffering from long-term viral or bacterial infection damage, such as chronic Lyme disease, are dismissed as hypochondriacs.

(Yes, the paper was about the mRNA vaccine doing reverse transcription. Perhaps irrationally, I can't help thinking that a genetically engineered vaccine doing that has to be worse than a naturally occurring virus doing it, in terms of our body being able to deal with the fallout more gracefully. But then that brings up the "naturally occurring virus" question… What a morass.)
————

passthecream, thank you for the mention of Michael Hudson. Simply reading the Amazon description of J IS FOR JUNK ECONOMICS is an education. Which article in particular were you referring to?; 6 Mar 2022, 15:20:00
cavenewt said...: LA_Bob..."To riff on cave's comment a bit, I've scratched my head over the MSM's transition from challenging government policy (say, during the Vietnam War years) to mouthing it."

No mystery at all. Follow the money. Cable news, and then the Internet, destroyed mainstream media's financial underpinnings. Now they're mostly co-opted. The Gates Foundation alone has poured billions of dollars into influencing media and even journalism schools. In the old days, "advocacy journalism" would have been an oxymoron. Now they teach it to budding journalists. https://rwmalonemd.substack.com/p/advocacy-journalism-is-propaganda; 6 Mar 2022, 16:39:00
LA_Bob said...: "MP's are not noted for their intelligence. But even *they* have finally realised that they have been had. Badly..."

Someone described James Baker, a US Secretary of the Treasury and Secretary of State and White House Chief of Staff under two presidents, as a "decent student of policy but an awesome student of politics". Those MP's might not have or use intelligence as you would prefer, but they have to be clever enough to keep their jobs (get re-elected).

In the US, restrictions are starting to peel away, and it is because political winds rather than science changed. Government promised the vaccines would restore normalcy. Yet mask mandates, dining restrictions, and other closures continued. Then came (shudder) booster shots and employee vaccine mandates. While many folks continue to play along, many others dug in their heels and said, "No!" (We Americans have a healthy helping of defiance in our cultural DNA). Politicians are taking notice and acting accordingly. I doubt any of them think they were "had".

I imagine it's the same in the UK.; 6 Mar 2022, 17:31:00
karl said...: @Peter
I'm looking in from outside - via biased reporting - propaganda etc - and after seeing so many lies I don't know what the real story is in the Ukraine - quite sure I don't have a full set of information.

But I do remember some history - the deal that ended the Cuban missile crisis - the deal with the fall of the USSR - all included the idea that the west would not put weapons and missiles in countries that bordered Russia. The idea that the USA keeps on poking a paranoid bear with a stick seems like an effort to create conflict. I remember the US orchestrating the coup in the Ukraine. I don't like the dictator on either side of this conflict.

I think that those encouraging the Ukraine - sending weapons will indeed hurt Russia - but will also hurt the Ukraine. In the back of my head I wonder - as there were those that profited greatly from the war on CoVid - at the expense of the public health - are the policies that created this war about making money move for those that will profit?

A proxy war between the US and Russia using the Ukraine as the battle ground is a horrible thing. This reminds me of Vietnam - a president was assassinated - I think likely by an out of control agency - and suddenly we were in Vietnam. 1.2 million Vietnamese died and boys I knew came back in a box - but it was the Vietnamese that paid the bigger price.

I see that the left - that used to stand for civil liberties - now is extremely xenophobic - Pushing people to see the world through race colored glasses - then hate for the unvaccinated - now towards Russians - the fear causes people to see things as a dichotomy - One has to be for or against - vaccines or war - no middle ground allowed.

I thought cooler heads would have prevailed - I was wrong.; 6 Mar 2022, 21:40:00
Passthecream said...: This comment has been removed by the author.; 6 Mar 2022, 22:05:00
Kevin FST said...: "Those MP's might not have or use intelligence as you would prefer, but they have to be clever enough to keep their jobs (get re-elected)"

All the vast majority of them have to do, thanks to UK's awful electoral system, is to avoid contradicting their party leader and do his (occasionally her) bidding.; 7 Mar 2022, 10:58:00
Eric said...: https://www.nytimes.com/2022/03/08/opinion/people-never-get-covid.html; 8 Mar 2022, 13:26:00
cavenewt said...: I read that article in the NYT "Why Do Some People Never Get Covid".

As with cancer, they're fixated almost exclusively on genetics. That undoubtedly plays a part, but they pretty much ignore things like the microbiome and its effect on overall immune health, diet, and other factors, including epigenetics which muddies the waters substantially. And of course they're focused on developing drugs or other treatments.

I'm not disparaging this research, I just wish they would take a more holistic approach. Covid is, after all, just another virus, and humanity lives with all kinds of viruses. Once again I come back to the typical anecdote of a low-carber who doesn't get colds or flu anymore. That's a big clue right there that diet and lifestyle can be a major factor.; 8 Mar 2022, 19:02:00
Peter said...: @karl, Bob and Kevin. Safe seats are a privilege, swing seats largely swung by the quality of the lies told by party leaders. Cynical, moi????

Eric, that’s hilarious. The virology, immunology and epidemiology from the mainstream have been absolutely dishonest from the start. Even with a genuinely new virus like parvovirus in dogs in the 1980s there was huge variation in susceptibly. Two dogs in the same household, one died, the other was never even ill. That’s for a DNA virus, stable in the environment for 6 months and highly transmissible with a low exposure needed. So you can imagine what I think of Fergusons models using 100% susceptibly to COVID.

Peter; 8 Mar 2022, 20:09:00
Tucker Goodrich said...: "So you can imagine what I think of Fergusons models using 100% susceptibly to COVID."

I worked on Wall Street running a team that ran statistical models. Ferguson was a joke. Rudimentary errors of modelling. First read-through indicated it was a joke.

But good enough for government work, as we mockingly say in the U.S.; 8 Mar 2022, 20:33:00
Passthecream said...: Tucker with your particular expertise have you thought of writing up an analysis exploring those ideas and attempting to get it published?

--- It's a pipe dream I know, publishing papers is weird these days in mainstream journals. You have to pay quite a lot for the privilege apparently. Plus other insanely complicated contortions.

But maybe in a financial journal, or mathematical/statistical as opposed to a medical/scientific one???; 9 Mar 2022, 10:36:00
Passthecream said...: Similar report in the Grauniad, looks like 50% of deliberately, multiply 'infected' trial participants did not catch the bug or had insignificant transient infections. Susceptible people catch it very easily from minute doses, non-susceptibles just don't get it.

That's huge ...

Interesting that they're reporting this in the main-stream just now as the mini-series !Pandemic! is about to be discontinued due to poor ratings.; 9 Mar 2022, 11:57:00
LA_Bob said...: "But good enough for government work, as we mockingly say in the U.S."

More than good enough, I imagine. Ferguson is extremely useful to the political class. He forecasts catastrophe, and the politicians "save" us from it. Bad for policy but good for their careers.; 9 Mar 2022, 15:53:00
Eric said...: Pass, see my post here dated March 2nd. Interestingly, the college student who had not caught it within two years and in challenge tests then got it in January just from being around random strangers.

Tucker, are you aware of Viola Priesemann's work in Göttingen? What do you make of it? Her predictions came true most of the time in 2020.

This is also a good summary about what approaches and groups had contributed to modelling by about a year ago (Ferguson is not even mentioned):
https://www.monitor-versorgungsforschung.de/Abstracts/Kurzfassungen-2021/MVF-02-21/PDF-Artikel-2021_2/MVF-Modelle; 9 Mar 2022, 18:22:00
Tucker Goodrich said...: @Passthecream: Thanks. I did a post on it:

"COVID-19: Is Italy — and Mass Quarantine — "Flattening the Curve" or Riding the Trend?"

April 5, 2020. Not bad.

Comparing Ferguson's assumptions to reality. I think I was the first person to do something like this. Then the politics hit, and I realized COVID wasn't a matter of science but of politics, if not religion.

I long ago realized it's a waste of time to spend it in that realm.

Since then the Nobel-winner Michael Levitt did the same analysis that I did, but extended it the way it should have been done.

So that time has passed, I think.; 9 Mar 2022, 18:49:00
Eric said...: https://www.nytimes.com/2021/10/19/health/tuberculosis-transmission-aerosols.html?action=click&module=RelatedCoverage&pgtype=Article&region=Footer; 9 Mar 2022, 19:27:00
Peter said...: Yes Bob, Ferguson predicted tens of thousands of new vCJD deaths 10-20 years down the road during the UK's BSE episode in the 1980s. It's now 30 years down the line. Last time I checked there have been seven cases. So gov interventions *must* have saved us. Yippee!

Peter; 10 Mar 2022, 06:06:00
karl said...: Trying to understand were we are now - they extended the health emergency - I'm not sure how that effects the now $1B they spent on cooking the news? Has it stopped? Don't think so? The P$izer data is now out - being spun into what it isn't. Are they only cooking the news about CoVid - or are they pushing other bits? They just passed a bunch of spending over the new crisis.

I saw John Campbell's latest vid on the P$izer docs - He just realized that he was lied to - and is a bit upset. I am tracking it to see if they pull it down. Earlier he realized that they were cooking the worm med information. He was trying to help - encouraging masking and the only allowed intervention - I'm impressed that he is able to see it now - many will never see it.

I had to deal with a contractor yesterday that is locked into the official narrative - He is not stupid, but I had to walk on egg shells - he has fully swallowed his role to hate people that don't walk the official path. Really sad. I'm realizing that even as the information comes out, the harm will last a long time - many will never accept the reality. It is easier to fool people than to get them to realized they have been fooled.

@Petro
I'm not so sure I have a "safe seat" - I don't think you are overly cynical. I am quite sure I don't know what is going on - and don't trust those that should or claim they do. Even looking at different news sources - it is all propaganda - no way to sift the truth from the lies.

I spent quite a bit of time visiting old abandoned Atlas I sites - These were ballistic missiles - guided for a while to a the path that RADAR hoped to send them. Huge expense at the time - but they really could not use them - even small errors could have resulted on these coming down on the wrong country. It was a mostly a bluff. Located in Kansas so the shot would be over the pole - reduce the chance of hitting the wrong place. Utter madness.

The Atlas II site I saw was 10x more expensive - scary - 10 floors down in the ground - floors mounted on springs in case a near by hit. Utter madness. I think we were incredibly lucky there were no exchanges.

But I am concerned by the weasel words about the bio labs recently in the news - carefully crafted by the USA with over specification so the denials don't cover everything. I Think the mix of vaccines and weapons is intentional - and again utter madness. It is always about what makes the money flow.

Seems like the world is full-on bonkers right now. I don't see any 'good guys' anywhere.; 10 Mar 2022, 23:15:00
Passthecream said...: Eric I'm sure susceptibility must be a moveable feast ie the complete environment in which a bug finds itself is the outer physical environment plus the current health state of the individual in question.; 10 Mar 2022, 23:52:00
Passthecream said...: Peter, if you want a measure of the quality of that modelling it's a real world result measuring approx one hundred micro-farqs. When I was in Ireland in '98 no-one would eat steaks or cheese for fear of turning into mad slavering creatures. Was good for me, too bad for them.

If prions were as contagious as originally proposed we'd all be goners by now.; 11 Mar 2022, 08:27:00
cavenewt said...: karl, your mention of "I don't see any 'good guys' anywhere" reminds of today's Alex Berenson post where he repeats the refrain "Everyone is bad but some people are worse." I'm not a great fan of Berenson but this particular article had some interesting history about the biolabs in Ukraine and Russia. https://alexberenson.substack.com/p/dont-be-a-useful-idiot

I have no idea what to think about the war. I just know that I don't really believe anything I read.; 11 Mar 2022, 18:08:00
cavenewt said...: Pass "If prions were as contagious as originally proposed"

In my immediate vicinity we officially now have Chronic Wasting Disease in the local deer herd. "Local" in that they walk through my yard every morning and evening. The authorities tell us that CWD is a prion disease and can live in the soil for years. As a consequence, to prevent myself from turning into a mad slavering creature, I no longer pick up deer droppings to put in the compost. Brainwashing works! (pun intended).

My poor, toe-licking cat is doomed.; 11 Mar 2022, 18:14:00
Passthecream said...: https://images.app.goo.gl/8ZGQe7pEiJzdeqULA

Pity. Great source of omega 3 /Sarc; 13 Mar 2022, 00:45:00
Peter said...: I need a "laughing to tears" emoji here...

Peter; 13 Mar 2022, 04:01:00
Eric said...: While the circumstances are more than sad, sunflower and canola oil are becoming scarce in German supermarkets. I only read this after seeing a lady buying 3 one liter bottles of sunflower oil in an organic market and wondering what she was up to.

On a world level, vegetable oils and wheat from Ukraine and Russia will probably be scarce. This would be a good thing if there were alternatives, which won't be available on short notice.; 15 Mar 2022, 09:13:00
Eric said...: A single dose of J&J vaccine now seems to offer better long term protection than a full course of Moderna or BioNTech:
https://www.nytimes.com/2022/03/15/health/covid-johnson-vaccine.html

Also note that there is no negative vaccine efficiency in the US. This 2-3x gap is similar to what is seen in Germany which leaves me puzzled why we've been seeing slightly negative efficiency in the UK for months.

Peter, do you think you can designate another playground? Thanks; 16 Mar 2022, 04:01:00

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