"But there was a strong increase in incidence over the first week after the injection. If the increase in incidence during the first few days after immunization is a result of people being less careful after they have had their first injection, then the vaccine effectiveness after a single dose may be even greater."
ie people might have been rather less careful than they should been for the first week after the vaccine. Those Israelis are such party animals.
Initial report of decreased SARS-CoV-2 viral load after inoculation with the BNT162b2 vaccine
Impact of vaccination on SARS-CoV-2 cases in the community: a population-based study using the UK’s COVID-19 Infection Survey
The Pfizer vaccine is marketed at the 30microgram dose rate, that's the brown plots. Over days 1-3 the lymphocyte count drops precipitously. If I have a patient on chemo whose lymphocytes have dropped below 1.0 10^9/l I would be worrying about immunosuppression. The effect is gone by a week. They never checked if it happens after the second dose.
It has been pointed out to me that figure S3a is actually BNT162b1 and the vaccine actually selected for marketing was (sensibly) BNT162b2, which has a much milder effect on the lymphocyte count. So I have to consider that lymphopaenia might not be the mechanism or, if it is still the mechanism, it will only apply to those at the lower end of the box and whisker plots. The plots from BNT162b2 are here, first in 18-55 year olds:
showing a very minor effect. I still ponder whether this might have a significant effect but obviously that question is wide open. The increased infection rate is too generic to be fluke, the question is more how relevant lymphopaenia might be as an explanation.
Herpes zoster following BNT162b2 mRNA Covid-19 vaccination in patients with autoimmune inflammatory rheumatic diseases: a case series
Emergency Use Authorization (EUA) for an Unapproved Product Review Memorandum
"Suspected COVID-19 cases that occurred within 7 days after any vaccination were 409 in the vaccine group vs. 287 in the placebo group."
"Given that the median incubation period is 5 days, the distribution indicates that most vaccinated hospitalised patients were infected around the time of vaccination, and the remainder after vaccination but before immunity had developed"
Also included is what happened to anyone's granny (A UK tier 2 category patient) if she picked up SARS-CoV-2 in the immediate aftermath of her vaccine. About 10% of these tier 2 patients didn't survive.
"Elderly and vulnerable people who had been shielding, may have inadvertently been exposed and infected either through the end-to-end process of vaccination, or shortly after vaccination through behavioural changes where they wrongly assume they are immune"
PS, from Australia:
State health authorities said the guard, who recently received his first dose of the Pfizer COVID-19 vaccine, worked on the same floor as two other positive cases from the United States and Indonesia."