Sunday, October 24, 2021

Are COVID-19 vaccines useful? (2)

I really, really don't like this:

Nasal prevention of SARS-CoV-2 infection by intranasal influenza-based boost vaccination

I picked it up via a tweet from Gabor Erdosi in the aftermath of the excellent discussion he had with Raphi, available on Youtube.

The only fundamental problem I have with their discussion was about original antigenic sin and the above pertains directly to this.

I was very pleased to receive the OAS source paper from Mike Eades (thanks Mike!) and it's a great read. An old paper from 1960, written in the style of the time, giving a basic idea discussed in almost conversational terms by a single author, with enough data to back up the idea, explaining where it came from. I can't see the original paper on tinternet although there are lots citing it:


EDIT location for the first page provided via eugyppius END EDIT

NEXT EDIT Full text here, thanks to Raphi END EDIT AGAIN

So. My fundamental difference in viewpoint to Gabor is that my expectation is that OAS from the mRNA vaccines would be limited to the systemic immune system and the respiratory mucosal immune system would be free from OAS and so able to mount a broad, effective response to produce sterilising immunity to a field infection. Whatever the evolution of spike protein to antibody avoidance, the respiratory mucosal system should stay clean.

The above technique of giving an intranasal live attenuated influenza vaccine at the same time as a systemic IgG inducing mRNA based vaccine appears to trigger respiratory mucosal IgA formation to the systemic spike protein antigen. You "kick" the respiratory system with an attenuated influenza vaccine and the "awake" respiratory immune system "notices" and responds to what should have been a systemic-only spike protein stimulus.

In the UK we already have routine childhood intranasal influenza vaccines. I'm not anti-vax, my kids get the intranasal flu vaccine, FWIW. Assuming mRNA Covid vaccines are made mandatory for children (peak stupidity, but nothing surprises me) I can see that the logistics of delivering both vaccines on the same day might favour doing both at once.

So for kids OAS would be effectively extended from systemic IgG to mucosal IgA. Which might well blunt a correct, broad antigenic response within the airway at the time of a subsequent field virus infection.

This sounds like a very, very, very stupid thing to do.

So it will probably become standard practice, even mandatory.


On the plus side the mucosal IgA might be sterilising, if anti-spike antibodies are enough to kill all of the virus. This will limit time available for selecting an anti-spike antibody evading strain of virus. But the pressure will be still there.

It's like giving a full therapeutic dose of methicillin to a patient with a methicillin susceptible staphylococcal infection. It works. You have to do it. You have to kill the staph completely. But one day you will still successfully select for MRSA... It will happen. It already has.


cavenewt said...

They've got this shiny new mRNA hammer, and are looking all over the place for nails to pound with it.

It might make sense to treat Covid vaccines as a global lab experiment and observe it a few years before pounding any new nails, but that's just too much to hope for.

Peter said...

Sadly so...


karl said...

I used to fairly trust the medical business - now my default is to distrust - CoVid is just the last nail.

Here is a paper of something that if developed - I suspect will end with 'unintended consequences' that will take a decade to see the iatrogenesis.

My best take on heart disease is it has been slowly decreasing after they banned leaded gasoline. I suspect that the lack of work for the MD's won't be a problem after they get the new cardiomyopathy cases from children in this experiment.

Dexter said...

Just to clarify for the layman. Intranasal flu vaccine good. Intranasal mRNA covid vaccine, possibly good. But intranasal flu and covid vaccine at the same time, very bad. That right?

Gyan said...

Won't any mutated spike that escapes all anti-spike antibodies would be a spike that is unable to function well with the ACE2 receptor?

Peter said...

Dexter, not quite that simple.

I/n live attenuated flu vaccs are pretty safe in kids. They are potentially lethal in geriatics, NHS advises an inactivated injectable vaccine in old foggies like me. So, no, "good" is not an adjective I would use.

Current 'rona vaccs look useless to me but I could be slightly wrong there. But they may well limit your immune response to non-spike components of the virus in your bloodstream. This is OAS.

Adding i/n flu vacc to current 'rona vaccs spreads this limitation to your airway surface immune response (if the cited research is correct).


Peter said...

Gyan, we can but hope.


altavista said...

If the spike is THE thing that made covid famous, and UK is 70% vaxxed with the 95% antispike thing, how do you get to 40,000/day?

cavenewt said...

karl—Glad to brighten your day with a laugh. Obviously I haven't read enough Masterjohn to be familiar with more of his oeuvre.

"I used to fairly trust the medical business - now my default is to distrust - CoVid is just the last nail." My personal take, based on a number of experiences, is that modern medicine is great with broken arms and stuff, but especially with chronic disease, it is the absolute definition of "hubris". Cavalierly attempting to manhandle the immune system being a prime example.

"I suspect that the lack of work for the MD's won't be a problem after they get the new cardiomyopathy cases from children in this experiment." Then you might appreciate

LA_Bob said...

Peter, thanks for the useful answer to Dexter's question. Very helpful and clarifying for me.

Peter said...

altavista, 40,000 "cases" a day is nothing. We have essentially free circulation of the virus amongst the vaccinated, possibly more so than the unvaccinated. Why worry about "cases"? And yes, we are testing like mad and many PCR machines doing bulk throughput are set with a 45 cycle derived yes/no output, you don't even get the cycle threshold. They're not all like that but many are. And we test, test, test, test some more, many tens of thousands of health people daily. The waste of money is eye-watering. The vast majority of "cases" are young and were never at risk of severe disease. Many are school kids and may not have had even a sniffle but LFT twice a weeks picks them up.


Ben said...

Been looking at the Australian Bureau of Statistics mortality figures to see what a vaccination rollout looks like with zero covid in the country. We started vaccinating in February but the jab rate was low until around Easter. So looking from Easter to the end of June, mortality was up 5.3% on the same period in 2020.

During this period, Covid deaths were down compared to 2020, same with Influenza and pneumonia, so it can't be blamed on them.

It will be interesting to see the latest mortality data but unfortunately they're over 2 months behind. I interprate this as "It looks horrible, don't release it!". Scary thing is that end of June is only around 22% of total jabs administered to date.

So one reason why they're useful is that they truly reduce rona deaths. Unfortunately it's probably because they cull the vulnerable before they have a chance to catch it.

A unrelated gem in this data was that during this period in 2020, when non-emergency medical was cancelled, deaths from ischaemic heart diseases was DOWN almost 10% on the 2015-19 average. So your views on cardiologists seem correct, as data shows skipping cardiologist check ups reduce related deaths. And now it's cardiologists that are going to try and fix all these newly created myocarditis patients.

raphi said...

I've got some thinking to do!

In the mean time, here's a PDF of the full study Peter linked to

karl said...

I don't have time - can someone look at the UK data - PHE Vaccine Surveillance Report - Are we seeing enhancement in older age groups? I don't want to over-read this.

Passthecream said...

Peter: " You "kick" the respiratory system with an attenuated influenza vaccine and the "awake" respiratory immune system "notices" and responds to what should have been a systemic-only spike protein stimulus."

A few thoughts running through my head recently (they don't hang around for long).

Where I live in S.Aus is still mysteriously free of this virus. If we head east over the border it's running along nicely in Vic. while it seems to be tapering off nicely in NSW, down from approx 2000 cases a day to below 500 and things are opening up again. The seasons are changing --- still a mystery as to how that affects viruses like this but one standout thing atm where I live is that it is peak hayfever season and this is probly THE hayfever capital of the world. I'm surrounded all day long by sneezes coughs watery eyes etc as the huge quantities of grass and eucalyptus pollen waft around. Our weather bureau gives us daily pollen counts in their forecasts. One of my workplaces is next to a hundred acres of rye grass and it is in full bloom right now. People are guzzling antihistamines as if there was no tomorrow.

This must have some effect on susceptibility to viral infections? Does it compete with them? Could it give an immune enhancement as above if being vaccinated at the same time I wonder????

Does the canonical flu season usually end as the hayfever season kicks in?

Passthecream said...

Hmm, the hayfever versus virus theory looks promising wrt Sydney pollen count statistics:

Peter said...

Thanks Raphi, link update in post.


Peter said...

karl, not sure I can see it in the week 42 data but every metric is currently worse than last year or about to become so as our normal winter respiratory virus season starts (as in now).

Ben, I can see that that is worrying. I don't think there has ever been a vaccine as useless and dangerous as this one...

pass, in the UK the pollen season comes well after the end of the respiratory virus season, so not sure and competition. I see Melbourne has now peaked and will follow Sidney. Are there any large conurbations yet to become active in terms of cases?

Hmmm. Tear gas as an alternative to pollen? Must take my anti-facetiousness pill...


Malcolm said...

I get hay fever, and generally assume it means an active immune system, so implies better response to other infections, e.g. covid-19 (I was almost never ill as a child). But maybe it doesn't work like this, I dunno.

Jay said...

To answer your question about Australia and 'large conurbations'. Perth in Western Australia is about 2 million people and surburban - they are and have been the whole time almost completely free of cases apart from those coming in with container ship crews or returnees from overseas(mopped up by quarantine). They will be an excellent case study when their state government finally opens the borders even to the rest of Australia!
I used to live there, family still does. Now I live in Ireland where we have >90% of adults vaccinated (in fact close to that figure probably for 12+) and case rates as high as last January (although they may be close to peaking). They're using vaccine passes and blaming the unvaccinated.

Passthecream said...

Similarly Brisbane at 2.3 mill is pretty well free of it and Adelaide around 1.3
million likewise.

I'm apprehensive about things opening up again now that vaccination is so prevalent.

Passthecream said...

", in the UK the pollen season comes well after the end of the respiratory virus season"

That's a pity, it was such a neat theory!
Obviously the season changes, the sunlight intensity and length of daylight are going to drive the vegetable kingdom towards pollen production in addition to their effects on humans.

There is that nasal spray antiviral prophylactic mentioned here recently. I wonder what the method of action of that is???

Thinking about the alleged benefits of vitamin C, interestingly it is a co-factor for DAO, the principal enzyme which degrades and regulates histamine. Lemons, citrus in general OTOH are histamine liberators. Citrus is one of the food types to avoid if you are overly sensitive to histamine. Bananas, pineapple and papaya too. Having a hot lemon, honey and garlic drink to soothe a cold --- I speculate that it's the histamine pulse that helps there, a nice jolt to the immune system.

Robin said...

This is nothing to do with vaccines, but I thought that Peter et al. might be interested. This paper is titled "Beef fat prevents alcoholic liver disease in the rat" and it seems to provide evidence for the obesogenic effect of corn oil vs. low LA lard (2.5%) and tallow (0.7%). There is a detailed breakdown of the diets and the fatty acid composition of the fats used.

altavista said...

Lancet can tell the truth now that 70% got their vaxx lol

Peter said...

Thanks Pass and Jay. Those will, undoubtedly, be places to watch. With any sort of liberalisation of movement they will be pretty well wide open to the ‘rona. I see snippets that the vaccine benefit is ephemeral, that efficacy against serious illness and death becomes negative with time and that there are suggestions at the individual level that the vaccine is completely ineffective. Springtime really must arrive soon in the southern hemisphere and the vacs in Auss/NZ can start to work again, unlike in the UK. Currently we are delaying lockdown because most of the highly susceptible people passed away in the first wave and during our vaccine roll-out in mid winter. Something to be grateful to Twat Hancock for I have to grudgingly accept.

Malcolm and Pass, of course the hay fever season varies from pollen to pollen. I tend to think of the grasses in June but many tree pollens are out from February so maybe there is something to the idea….

Unknown, an interesting study. But, did you notice that while the beef fat rats were slimmest they died soonest? Hmmmmmmm...

alta, yes. Auss has been sold a lemon. Like the rest of us. Still, green card passports will save us all.


altavista said...

Like the fruit and veg studies, Peter. They switched over to covid too :)

"Vaccination reduces the risk of delta variant infection and accelerates viral clearance. Nonetheless, fully vaccinated individuals with breakthrough infections have peak viral load similar to unvaccinated cases and can efficiently transmit infection in household settings, including to fully vaccinated contacts."

Peter said...

Does this link work alata?


Peter said...

I like the guy's mindset!

"Until we solve these fundamental problems we cannot say anything about vaccine benefit or disbenefit. Well actually we can, but what we say isn’t going to be worth tuppence!"


Robin said...

Hi Peter,
Yes I did notice that the beef fat fed rats consuming ethanol died soonest. It seems as though there were five pairs of rats for each group and from the quote below you can get an idea of when the animals died from each group. There is a fair bit of variance:

"Five pairs in all dietary groups survived 2 months, four pairs in all groups survived 3 months, two pairs in the tallow group, four pairs in the lard group and three pairs in the corn oil group survived 4 months, two pairs in each group survived 5 months and one pair for each of tallow and corn oil and two pairs for lard survived 6 months"

The beef fed rats consuming ethanol were probably underweight. The authors stated that "The much lower weight gain in tallow fed animals is likely a result of essential fatty acid deficiency which is further exaggerated by ethanol." Their omega 6 consumption (linoleic + arachidonic) was only 0.25% of calories, so the authors may have a point. I would guess that the beef fat control and lard control animals were of normal weight, but unfortunately we don't know for how long they would have lived compared to the corn oil control. Perhaps the extra fat that the corn oil fed rats were carrying somehow protected them from the effects of the alcohol and they therefore lived longer on average, although I doubt the differences are statistically significant.

Robin said...

Actually, I take some of that back. The lard and corn oil animals fed ethanol both gained a similar amount of weight at 112 g, whereas the tallow animals fed ethanol gained only 50 g (underweight).

Reading this:

"Five pairs in all dietary groups survived 2 months, four pairs in all groups survived 3 months, two pairs in the tallow group, four pairs in the lard group and three pairs in the corn oil group survived 4 months, two pairs in each group survived 5 months and one pair for each of tallow and corn oil and two pairs for lard survived 6 months"

I would intuitively have thought that the lard rats have the highest mean survival time. Although, without the full data I guess we have to take their word for it.

cavenewt said...


"In plain English, and in a nutshell, I found an apparent vaccine benefit for records randomised by 1 patient, 10 patients, 100 patients and 1,000 patients. What expert folk are claiming around the globe is thus nothing more than an illusion. It is only when I come to totally randomise all 9,783 records that the illusion of vaccine benefit disappears and we find no correlation between COVID status and vaccination status."

I think I understand this – it's a way of testing whether a correlation is legitimate or not...? If so, it seems like this would be a standard procedure done frequently as a way of verifying conclusions before publication, doesn't it?

Peter said...

cave, ultimately we are looking at marketing vs science


Kevin FST said...

Or, even worse, the marketing of "science."

altavista said...

I'm shocked no stormtroopers barged in and pulled the wires :)

Peter said...

altavista, you'll enjoy this. Here's how the trick was turned, Auss and NZ will be over the same barrel too, any country late to buy vaccine was.

At some point (already???) they will realise they've sold their soul for a lemon which doesn't work. Only option is to double down, blame the unvaccinated, blame delta, blame....... I think it really is possible that the vacc doesn't work. At all. I could be wrong of course. Maybe.


cavenewt said...

altavista and Peter, the whole 30-min press conference can be seen at

cavenewt said...

Peter, re marketing vs science...of course it is. My question was as much rehetorical as naive :)

Peter said...

cave, oops, mea culpa!


Passthecream said...

This report is only from the Grauniad but it is highly likely to be accurate. The CV19 virus has cracked the big time, pan-species transmission. It is definitely here to stay now that it has gotten into so many different animal populations:

We can but hope that somehow, since these animals are not dosed up with Pfizer etc, that it will run its natural course and mutate into a contagious yet mostly harmless variant which spreads back in the human direction. The other possibilities don't bear thinking about.

cavenewt said...

I have a couple of questions for Peter on passthecream's wildlife coronavirus article.

'Deer, which are abundant in North America and a popular target for hunters, are highly susceptible to SARS-CoV-2, and they may contract it by grazing on discarded food, drinking contaminated wastewater, or nosing through undergrowth where a person has spit or relieved themselves. “If they come in contact with the virus from any means of source, they are going to be infected,” Kuchipudi said. “It is highly likely that the animal will pick up the infection even though face-to-face interaction never happened.”'

I thought it's been decided that fomites aren't a problem and only airborne transmission is an issue?

'Even before the Covid-19 pandemic, coronaviruses were well known for infecting animals, and vaccinations against common coronaviruses were standard for pets in the US.'

I thought there weren't any effective coronavirus vaccines for anything, animals or humans. Is that too general?

Peter said...

Hi cave,

there is a summary here:

The canine and feline vaccs have never been marketed in the UK. The feline one can trigger ADE (ie FIP) and I'm puzzled why anyone uses it at all. The canine one is not needed, no idea if it works. The chicken one we've discussed. The pig one is useless. Haven't followed up on the cattle ones but effectiveness in farm species is a simple financial consideration, and even then making a correct assessment may not be easy. As it says:

"Other issues that have been encountered in developing these animal vaccines include a relatively short duration of protective immunity, and a lack of effectiveness of inactivated vaccines."


Over the years I have this dubious concept that if something can be marketed actual effectiveness is of little importance. No change there then for 2021.

Foamites, it can happen but it's not the driver of pandemics is how I see it. Of course I consider limiting spread to be a bad idea, elderly excepted. Deer sniffing human poop deep in the log grass sounds plausible to me (SARS-CoV-2 is faecal excreted). Then the deer can cough over each other.


Passthecream said...

These two articles from Nature are interesting.

Caveat: trust nobody, believe nothing.