Saturday, April 03, 2021

Israel is doing really well for COVID-19 vaccination

Israel has missed out on submitting data to EUROMOMO for week 13 of this year. During week 12 they recorded a marked, unique, increase in all cause mortality in their over 65 year olds, almost all of whom are now fully vaccinated against COVID-19 with the Pfizer vaccine.

These people do not appear to have died of COVID. It seems to be mostly cardiac problems which don't seem to be particularly well defined. Translated from a Hebrew newspaper via Google as a specialist saying "We are now witnessing a murky wave of heart attacks."

The now-outdated week 12 data are presented on-line by a group called Swiss Policy Research. I have no idea of their affiliations, politics or agenda and, frankly, I don't care. The graph certainly looks like a EUROMOMO graph and Israel has not, as of today, submitted their week 13 data.








Of course these data are provisional and, of course, numbers of deaths in week 13 might be really low but the Israelis just haven't gotten around to submitting the numbers yet. Maybe they're too busy partying in celebration of their vaccine success. EDIT Or Passover! END EDIT

I'm uncomfortable about ADE with these vaccines. I'm concerned about triggering auto-immune diseases. I've not really considered the thrombogenic/disseminated intravascular coagulation potential but it's also there to worry about.

The European Medicines Agency is responsible for the authorisation of SARS-CoV-2 vaccines in Europe.

Doctors For COVID Ethics are currently in discussion with the head of the EMA with a view to starting a prosecution of EMA for crimes against humanity relating to these vaccines. The physiology and immunology which they cite as being relevant (and as yet un-assessed by the EMA) make a very interesting case.

I personally am very, very cautious about yielding to the coercive pressure to accept such a vaccine here. Coercion is becoming a part of reality in the UK. These vaccines are absolutely experimental in their technology, have never before been licensed anywhere in the world and will provide no benefit for the vast majority of the recipients. The sooner the legal cases actually begin the better. Sadly a victory in Europe would not get we folks in the UK out from under the Boris Johnson jackboot.

As always: If you are at risk of dying from COVID-19, take the vaccine. If you are not, think hard about it.

Peter

42 comments:

Stan Bleszynski said...

I love this post!
BTW - Did you listen to Ilana Rachel's audio or video messages?

ZoomZoom said...

Israel is in the middle of Passover. From the afternoon of March 26 - April 4. These isn't a single bus, taxi, train, office, or store open in the whole country. And yes, everyone is partying, but they are celebrating Passover not the vaccine.

Tsabar said...

Upon reading the article in Hebrew, the title greatly misrepresents the contents as written by Prof Ronen Rubinstein, head of cardiology Wolfson Hospital.

In the closing paragraphs he writes:
"למרות החשש מהחיסון - נראה כי החיסון בטוח גם ללב האדם"
"despite the fear of the vaccination - it seems that the vaccination is safe for the human heart"
(my translation)

My comment in no way refutes your substantive concerns on the vaccine on which I am far from qualified to opine

Tsabar said...

added: link to original article

https://www.ynet.co.il/health/article/HkKmGxyrd

Peter said...

Stan, Prof Cahill Cahill makes some excellent points. My only minor quibble is that the mRNA vaccines will not be persistent in recipient tissues for the long term. All mRNA is gradually degraded and cannot be incorporated in to host DNA without a reverse transcriptase enzyme, which we don't have. So the immune response persists and will still be there from memory T cells (from SARS this is still there today, 17 years later) but the mRNA will be long gone.

She also mentioned changes in the post mortem findings. I read a snippet somewhere without saving it that the lung infiltrates in clinical COVID are primarily with monocytes, ie cells of normal response to infection but those of ADE are primarily eosinophilic, as in auto-immune/allergic responses.

ZoomZoom, ah, useful to know. A bit like the Christmas delays in registration of deaths in Europe but possibly even more so. Thanks for the insight. Hope everyone has a great Passover.

Tsabar, great to hear but of course it's impossible to attribute any problem to the vaccine when you have just given it to a remarkably large percentage of your population, with no idea of the medium term adverse effect. That would be political suicide. Interestingly it begs the question as to what happens when the UK finally wakes up to how badly Bojo has managed the pandemic and he is politically and metaphorically "thrown under the bus". If we also throw Witty, Valance, Ferguson and Handcock under too "we might need a bigger bus" as Bojo has said on a different subject. You might have to have lived through the UK "leave" campaign to appreciate this.

Peter

le frota said...

Peter, what are your thoughts about the "old style" attenuated virus vaccines?

Here in Brazil it's the one being produced, in partnership with China. It's similar to the Russian one, the Sputnik.

It's been the vaccine with the least reported side effects, although the efficacy was labeled at 50%.

But then again, I'm not concerned about Covid since I'm in my 30s, have eliminated PUFAs from my diet almost 8 years ago, and I keep my tropical sunlight in check.

It's just that I might have to take it for work, but was wondering if taking this one would pose less risk.

Cheers

Peter said...

Hi le frota, who knows? In Petersden's review of the feline version he cites, for feline coronavirus, the use of a mildly pathogenic strain of FeCoV which was pretty useless and an a-virulent strain which induced marked ADE. As he says "Vaccination with the avirulent virus induced ADE and, following challenge-exposure, all cats developed FIP; 40% of cats had prolonged survival, while 60% died from fulminant disease." I'm sure this doesn't happens in humans. Maybe.

Bear in mind the studies Petersden cites were deliberately set up to detect ADE because no one wants to market a vaccine which kills the recipients. Not in cats anyway.

Peter

karl said...

The only good from the hysteria is if we learn more about all viruses..

My understanding of FIP is based on what veterinarians told me - I always thought is was fecal-oral - not air-born. I don't trust published this year - but there were papers talking about fecal virions..
'Prolonged viral shedding in feces of pediatric patients with coronavirus disease'
Also https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.03.28.20043059v1
'Virus shedding patterns in nasopharyngeal and fecal specimens of COVID-19 patients'

not sure how you would measure which route spreads more?

,.,.

Are we a limited resource viruses are battling over?
'Human rhinovirus infection blocks SARS-CoV-2 replication within the respiratory epithelium'
https://academic.oup.com/jid/advance-article/doi/10.1093/infdis/jiab147/6179975
'Virus–virus interactions impact the population dynamics of influenza and the common cold'
https://www.pnas.org/content/116/52/27142

How could one measure the dormant viral load? I wonder why - I wonder - do viruses produce zombie cells?

The real problem
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7913136/pdf/ijerph-18-01376.pdf

Of course we also are infected by those that want to expand their political power and exploit any crises.. IMO committing crimes against humanity.

Gyan said...

Doesn't the trial data for the vaccines show that ADE is not a significant concern with these vaccines?.
These vaccines claim to protect 100% from serious illness. Provided we trust the data, there seems to be no concern about 1 in 100 chance of getting something serious via ADE. All we have is 1 in 90,000 chance of getting these clots.

Peter said...

That would be lovely Gyan!

Peter

Peter said...

karl, yes, feline coronavirus is enteric unless it develops in to FIP which is a granulomatous vasculitis. We know from the UK data that if you SARS-CoV-2 vaccinate 40,000 people in a trial that none of them show ADE. But whether this applies to elderly obese type 2 diabetics is a total unknown. I saw a twitter anecdote that a freedom of information enquiry in Scotland informs us that there have been 2000 deaths within 28 days of vaccination up there in 2 months. Population about 5 million, no idea how many elderly. I’ve no idea what the normal death rate in the elderly Scotland population is either but I’m not expecting to ever see government charts of death with 28 days of vaccine in the UK any time soon. After all, elderly and frail people were specifically excluded from the phase 3 trials. We’re flying blind on extrapolated pharma data.

Peter

Oh, and completion between viruses strikes me as very real. Hence no flu. When people posit that all the religious observances with face nappies, alcohol on the hands not in a glass and social distancing etc have blocked flu and RSV but not SARS-CoV-2 I would laugh except I have to share the planet with them. And I will have to carry a vaccine passport. The strongest sign that the winter resurgence in the UK is over is that RSV has started to present in kids and the paediatricians know there is going to be an avalanche of very sick kids starting now.

Gyan said...

Scotland with 5 million implies about 4000 deaths per month, assuming one percent of the population to pass on in one year. This would give 2000 post-vaccinated deaths in 2 months if 25% of the population were vaccinated.

Gyan said...

Could we protect ourselves from covid just by maintaining a (rhinovirus) cold?

Numbbum said...

These are a fun distraction:

https://www.bhf.org.uk/informationsupport/heart-matters-magazine/news/coronavirus-and-your-health/how-to-find-out-your-risk-when-it-comes-to-coronavirus

altavista said...

https://cliffmass.blogspot.com/2021/04/is-outside-air-covid-safe-are-masks.html?m=1

Peter said...

Well, you can't keep yourself as a rhinovirus carrier because we have an immune system which is incredibly good at getting rid of viruses. Only UK's SAGE denies immunity. In the real world of SARS-CoV-2 it's called pre-existing immunity. It is very, very real, there's a lot of it about. Unless you're an 82 year old morbidly obese type 2 diabetic of course...

Numbbum, hope it's better than CVD risk predictors!

Peter

Peter said...

altavista, OK, but implicit in the concept is the idea that masks indoors or outdoors do anything! Reminds me of Fauci drivelling on about how 3 feet of separation might be as good as 6 feet under some circumstances. How about zero feet and acting normally. Or will that kill someone's granny? As far as I can tell none of our NPIs have made a hapeneth of difference to anything.

Peter

altavista said...

Too late for normal, Peter. Immunity is hard, this is easy. 400 vs 800. even SAGE could understand and legislate on it. Dunno, maybe you'd like to breathe when you take the kayak out this summer hehe

Peter said...

Just waiting for the sleet to stop before getting back on the river!

Peter

karl said...

@altavista

Wearing a mask outside is simply a symptom of neurotic phobia - an obvious indicator of the level of harm inflicted on the public by incompetent policies.

I think this not only blocking other points of view, it is emerging global totalitarianism.

Passthecream said...

Numbum, the examples given for unhealthy people currently living in England seem to show just how un-serious this virus is compared to the usual risks for them of getting ill or dying.

Stan Bleszynski said...

An interesting article on this subject:

https://greatreject.org/pfizer-holocaust/

Pfizer vaccine in Israel: Experts speak of “a new Holocaust” (update: interview with Tamir Turgal )

BY GREATREJECT · 09/03/2021

French university study finds ‘tens to hundreds of times higher mortality by Pfizer vaccine’, experts speak of ‘a new Holocaust’

Infectious disease experts at the University of Marseille speak of ‘a new Holocaust’ based on official government figures in Israel – Nearly half of all official Israeli corona deaths occurred after vaccinations, starting in in mid-December 2020 – The majority of serious patients in hospitals were vaccinated once or twice.

Dr. Hervé Seligmann, an Infectious Diseases expert at the University of Aix-Marseille, together with engineer Haim Yativ, have taken a close look at the official figures and statistics of Israel, to date by far the most corona-vaccinated country in the world, to see if it is really true that the Pfizer vaccine reduces the number of corona cases and deaths so significantly, as most mainstream media claim. Several newspapers, including France Soir and Arutz Sheva now report that Seligmann and Yativ have come to the startling conclusion that “hundreds of times more young people and dozens of times more elderly people die from the vaccine than from corona in the same period. They even talk about ‘a new Holocaust’.

Gyan said...

‘tens to hundreds of times higher mortality by Pfizer vaccine’

Well if a vaccine entirely suppresses the corona deaths while causing a few unfortunates to die of non-corona then the above statement will be true. But the comparison of significance needs to be made with corona death rate pre-vaccination.
Now Israel is reporting corona deaths as 8 (7 day running average) down from peak of 60 in late January.

"Nearly half of all official Israeli corona deaths occurred after vaccinations, starting in in mid-December 2020 – The majority of serious patients in hospitals were vaccinated once or twice."

The vaccine is supposed to take 2 weeks to take effect. There was a corona peak in Israel--starting mid-November the daily case rose tenfold to mid-January. Vaccination started mid-December. The present daily cases are half of the mid-November low.

@Stan,
At your blog, you talk about the vaccine being a bioweapon. But there is no "the vaccine" but a lot of different vaccines produced using entirely different techniques and mechanisms.

Peter said...

Gyan, from NEJM https://www.nejm.org/doi/full/10.1056/NEJMoa2101765 looking at Figure 2 sections C, D and E it is clear that the vaccine had some effect between weeks 2 and 5 but by week six the non vaccinated group had stopped being hospitalised, developing severe illness or dying too. A little late but they got there. So the trial usefulness was essentially terminated by falling cases in the non vaccinated people. Not the vaccine. The vaccine clearly has an effect but it’s trivial compared to the Gompertz curve.

From a reanalysis of the same data, only as a preprint, it is clear that vaccination doubles the risk of SARS-CoV-2 infection from 0.03% to 0.06% during the first week post vaccination, that’s in Figure 2 of https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2021.02.01.21250957v1. If you go back to the NEJM paper you will notice from Figure 1 that 26,282 people were excluded because they “were confined to the home or were nursing home residents”. ie the people who were most likely to die were excluded from the Israeli data. No reason given.

So in Israel the vaccine works slightly better than doing nothing but doubles the risk of infection, peaking at seven days with the increased risk dropping to zero by two weeks, after which the vaccine helps a bit.

Of course it can’t cause heart disease because it's made by Pfizer who are the most honest and upfront pharmaceutical company on the planet. If the stroke deaths are real then the people who are affected enough to die or even be recognised as having vaccine associated disease will be the absolute tip of the iceberg. It is genuinely on my radar that these may be class effects of all of the mRNA vaccines.

Your innocence is touching. Unfortunately I live in a dirty, messy world where my kids are in the crosshairs for enforced injection with these experimental treatments when they are at zero risk of COVID-19. I don’t have the privilege of innocence.

Peter

Gyan said...

Peter, the pressure to vaccinate is here too. We have a conventional inactivated virus vaccine along with the AJ and your writings have convinced me to prefer the conventional vaccine, if it were absolutely required to get vaccinated.

But I am trying to understand if the risks amount to a 'New Holocaust'.

Peter said...

For that we need the all cause mortality from Israel. It will be surprising if it is low, but it could be!

In the UK we had two small COVID waves in the autumn as the NW, and NE/East Anglia finished off their spring 1st waves which were terminated by the onset of the end of the winter season. These later waves were declining when we had a normal winter respiratory virus season. COVID was still present, it's endemic now, and this coincided with the vaccine roll out. I expected low all cause mortality this winter as many of the elderly had died in the first wave(s). But if I accept a doubling of infections in the first two weeks after each vaccine, in a population which is prone to dying of COVID, I could understand it. Plus anyone entering an NHS hospital in December was likely to be exposed to SARS-CoV-2 and people needing hospital for acute medical conditions will be COVID prone...

The difference in Israel is that their vaccine roll-out looks to have been after their winter COVID peak so all they are seeing is mystery increase in all cause mortality, not COVID.

Our all cause winter mortality peaked at the same time as vaccine rollout so any adverse effect of the vaccine would a) have been put down to winter deaths and b) would have been "COVID" because in Dec/Jan you almost couldn't die of anything else. Or, at least, you couldn't die without failing to get a PCR positive test result.

This improved in Jan when the PCR ct was dropped to 30 from the "as high as you like" used previously.

So if the UK had an all cause mortality spike late Dec/Early Jan, as we did, it was labelled all-COVID. We could easily have done an Israel but obscured.

If it's any consolation it only went on for a few weeks, so Israel should actually normalise soon.

Peter

Gyan said...

I just came across this letter published in BMJ: https://www.bmj.com/content/372/bmj.n810/rr-14

"the reality of the morbidity caused by our current vaccination program within the health service and staff population. The levels of sickness after vaccination is unprecedented and staff are getting very sick and some with neurological symptoms which is having a huge impact on the health service function. Even the young and healthy are off for days, some for weeks, and some requiring medical treatment. Whole teams are being taken out as they went to get vaccinated together."

Peter said...

Yes, we sceptics are well aware of the letter. Nothing like this occurred in the studies so it cannot be due to the vaccine. I love Pfizer.

Peter

Stan Bleszynski said...

Gyan wrote: @Stan,
At your blog, you talk about the vaccine being a bioweapon. But there is no "the vaccine" but a lot of different vaccines produced using entirely different techniques and mechanisms.

Gyan, I am skeptical to all of them. If your read more of my posts on stan-heretic on the subject you will understand why. Coronavirus is highly mutative and a variety of it tends to be always present in human body. Past attempts at making coronavirus vaccines resulted in animals dying of cytokine storm (autoimmune) following reinfection, triggered by multitude of triggers not just one signal (like in smallpox virus). It appears to be a common feature of the mild non-lethal viruses. Another one is yellow fever, where similar problems with the vaccines did occur in the past. The only case it appears when coronavirus vaccine has been commercially sold and used, is for chickens in chicken farms, since about 20 years ago. Peter - please confirm or correct the last statement if I am inaccurate.

Regards,
Stan
P.S.
Avoid the Pfoizon! :)

Peter said...

Israel is back on EUROMOMO and the trend in all cause mortality is down again for the over 65s.

Stan, there is a feline vaccine for FIP prevention but no one uses it and it is rumoured to trigger ADE under certain circumstances, only available in the USA as far as I know. As far as non mRNA SARS-CoV-2 vaccines, I dunno. If they were that easy to make we would have vaccinated ourselves against endemic coronaviruses decades ago. Cautious would be a good approach.

Peter

Eric said...

Nice animation of weekly incidence in Europe sind spring of last year
https://www.zeit.de/wissen/gesundheit/2021-04/coronavirus-ausbreitung-europa-fallzahlen-pandemie-karte-animation-hotspots

Passthecream said...

Eric, requires subscription. Could you paint a word-picture?

The Bionic Broad said...

I would appreciate data about the Johnson & Johnson shot. It is difficult to find information about it, and when I do, I am unable to make heads or tails of it. Thank you.

Peter said...

No idea I'm afraid, not looked there. NHS is now on to in-person phone calls about my intentions re vaccination. Nice lady. I was polite as I insulted Bojo.

Peter

Eric said...

Pass, oh, they do it every so often that they will put an article behind the paywall after it's been free for a day, but usually the covid articles stay free.

It was just a map of Europe, and you could play a movie with colors for each country changing for each week.

altavista said...

But Peter, isn't the pub worth this?

blob:https://video.wakkeren.nl/431fa2b3-1993-4497-97f4-17568cef944c

Peter said...

Argh, getting a 404 on that link.

Peter

Eric said...

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2021/apr/16/spreading-faster-hitting-harder-why-young-brazilians-are-dying-of-covid

Not sure what to make of this. P1 seems to be reinfecting those who have had the original variety, and making young folks without discernible comormibities very sick. I haven't yet figured out how effective the current vaccines are supposed to be.

Peter said...

Hmmmm, only time will tell on that one. I notice that the Kent variant (B.1.17?) was supposed to kill us all. Same with the SA variant. I notice people are still alive in Kent and COVID-19 cases in the UK have collapsed. Same in SA. Of course the Brazilian variant will kill us all, and very soon as it's here in the UK now. Just ask Whitty or Fauci, they've been right about everything so far, we're all going to die and face nappies will save us. I'm not sure the Guardian is much of a source of information nowadays.

Peter

Bob said...

Peter, your friend Bojo says it's lockdowns and not vaccines that have knocked down the UK cases. Speaking of politically tone-deaf. Just wow.

Peter said...

It's simple. What is the difference between a bucket of sewage for SARS-CoV-2 testing and Prime Minster Johnson? One is thicker than the other. Oh, and the sewage does't lie as a function of breathing.

There are arguments that it's all a double bluff and Bojo is a genius. I don't think so...

Peter

cavenewt said...

I don't remember seeing it mentioned elsewhere in comments: George recently posted a really interesting article, "Zombies of the Risk Society".

https://hopefulgeranium.blogspot.com/2021/04/zombies-of-risk-society.html